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By: TechVanguard, a tech opinion leader with millions of followers on X/Twitter
A top-tier La Liga soccer club allegedly wagered $1 million against its own team during a critical end-of-season match. The bet was placed through Kalshi, a U.S.-based prediction market platform. The club won the game 1-0, securing its spot in the top flight instead of relegation. This isn’t just a minor sports controversy—it’s a direct threat to the entire premise of regulated prediction markets.
Semafor, a leading financial news site, first broke the report earlier this week. The unnamed club used Game Point Capital, a firm that helps sports teams manage financial risk. Game Point Capital CEO Will Hall told Semafor the bet was a good test case for prediction markets. Susquehanna, a Kalshi market maker, took the other side and made over $1 million. None of the club, Kalshi, or Susquehanna responded to requests for comment. The club stood to lose millions in TV revenue if relegated to La Liga 2.
The report didn’t name the club, so sports analysts quickly narrowed down the candidates. The final matchday had two 1-0 winners already safe from relegation. The prior week’s 1-0 wins included Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid, and Alavés. Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid had no relegation risk, leaving Alavés as the only plausible team.
Spain blocked Kalshi and Polymarket just days after the alleged bet took place. The Ministry of Consumer Affairs issued an order restricting access to the platforms. The ministry cited missing proper licensing, plus gaps in identity checks and self-exclusion tools. Spain’s gambling laws ban club owners from betting on any matches their team participates in.
Despite Spain’s ban on the platforms, La Liga still has a multi-year deal with Polymarket. The deal makes Polymarket the league’s official prediction market partner in the U.S. and Canada. La Liga called the partnership a way to boost fan participation while upholding sporting integrity. Italy’s Serie A signed a similar deal last month, even though Polymarket is blocked there too.
If the allegations are proven true, countries that already ban prediction markets will never relax their restrictions.
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